Traditionally, the last Monday of the last full week of January has been a special day for bloggers, where everyone gets together to debunk the media-friendly pseudoscientific Blue Monday. Indeed, the date has had such a thorough trouncing that PR has switched tack, and it disappoints and distresses me to announce that today is in fact the most depressing day of the year.
In some of the best journalism they’ve done in a while, the Daily Mail has synthesised a bunch of press releases all pointing to the trend. Except most of it doesn’t. Indeed, only two of the various PR surveys they report found anything to do with this day. Let’s take the easy one first: today is the most popular day of the year for starting divorce proceedings. A divorce firm reckons this is because of the strain of Christmas, and, well, possibly. However, it’s likely that the major underlying cause is more mundane: professionals–such as lawyers–tend to take a lot of time off over the Christmas break, and the first Monday of January that isn’t a bank holiday is the first day everyone will be guaranteed to be back at work. Far from a stampede to divorce spouses who cheated at Monopoly, this is more likely a backlog from office closure.
The other study appears at face value to be somewhat more convincing: certainly, it’s a little more robust than the original Blue Monday equation. Some company flogging some sort of shit analysed tweets looking for “negative language” and determined that this happens today.
Now, I hunted the internet for a detailed research methodology for this study, and came up empty-handed. So I downgraded, and decided to look for the original press release, which didn’t seem to be anywhere either. So basically all I have to go on is what is regurgitated in the Mail:
But over the past three years, researchers analysed more than 2million tweets posted by Britons in January looking for negative language and phrases indicating a drop in mood.
They found that today, there will be nearly five times the average number of tweets relating to guilt, as people abandon their promises to pursue a healthier lifestyle.
The analysis, by [like fuck I’m promoting them for this nonsense], also found complaints about the weather will be six times higher than usual – and men will feel more miserable than women.
First of all, the good: props to the PR people for doing this analysis over three years. On initial reading, I thought they’d just analysed tweets over a year, which would only tell us something about what the most depressing day of whatever year they analysed was. That’s about the only nice thing I have to say about this study.
Now, the most glaring thing about this research is that only tweets in the month of January were analysed. This means that a spike in tweets expressing a negative sentiment can only be identified during the month of January. What if there’s actually some sort of mystical force which makes the world an incredibly miserable place to live in on 23rd March? Tough titties. It was clear that they wanted a January date to flog whatever it is they’re flogging, and so they made damn sure it would happen in January, by only analysing January. It’s fairly elegant in its simplicity, although were I the PR people, I’d have buried that little fact deeper in the press release, because it really does detract from their “most depressing day of the year” message.
So, now let’s get to the minor niggles. The sample size looks like a complete turd. Twitter is a website wherein half a billion tweets a day are posted. Even if we assume that UK-based users only account for 1% of these tweets, we’re still looking at 5 million tweets per day. This research analysed only two million over the course of three Januarys. That’s a mere drop in the ocean. And how was this sample selected? We don’t fucking know. Presumably it was based on whoever the company’s follow-shit-on-Twitter bot decided to follow. And that’s the better explanation…
How were words coded and analysed as pertaining to, for example, guilt? Again, we don’t fucking know, but given the fact that it was a large data set, I’d guess it was computer-based analysis using pre-defined word lists. Given that it’s already demonstrated how much the research set out to find something predetermined, I have little faith in how these word lists were constructed. If I were to guess at how they found their two million tweets, I’d suspect it was standing searches for whatever words they’d selected, and counting the number of tweets using these words per day. That’s just fucking lazy.
And finally, how on earth did the research determine which users were men, and which were women? I shudder to think. A seething hive of assumptions, all wrapped up in a blanket of “fuck knows”.
So, in short, today isn’t the most depressing day of the year, it’s just the same PR bollocks lapped up by a thirsty-for-bullshit media. Let’s be honest with ourselves, everything is shit. It’s hard to find social forces that make one particular day w0rse than any others, because everything is shit. About 8-12% of people in the UK alone live with depression, and if anything, that figure is probably an underestimation, because everything is shit.
I wish I could have a duvet today, because fuck it, I’m depressed. Do PR studies constitute a valid excuse? I wish I had the energy to try.
5 thoughts on “Forget Blue Monday, today is the most depressing day of the year (according to PR)”
Well put, as usual…though oe minor quibble, which is that i find the explanation re. divorce day not entirely convincing.
My experience, over a long time of dealing with lawyers, is that they use the precise time when they serve peeps with bad news as a tool. Various reasons, including the fact that if you hit someone with a serious letter last thing on friday, there is usually little they can do except sit and stew over the weekend, and that is a small victory for them in the psychological warfare that accompanies most legal action.
Also, if you hit peeps just BEFORE a complicated holiday period, then the clock starts ticking on legal action, but they are going to be hard put to get any input from their own lawyers for two weeks.
That’s espesh relevant in divorce, where nowadays, proceedings are timetabled to the nth degree and if you hit someone with proceedings on xmas eve, they will have about a week less to respond than if you hit them with same on 2 January.
Dunno…you may be right all the same, as noone ever claimed solicitors were efficient.
But is suspect if they had their way, they’d hand out the bad news on xmas eve and maundy thursday….
(That’s sort of linked to the research by many HR professionals that the kindest time to give someone the push from a job is on a MONDAY, when they have access to a good work network and can start to do something about it, rather than on a Friday).
My other problem with such research of course has to be this:
THERE IS A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SADNESS/GUILT/NEGATIVITY AND DEPRESSION. The former are unpleasant but perfectly healthy emotions to feel from time to time, depression is a disabling and potentially life-threatening illness.
Innit. Complaining about shit weather=DEFINITELY NOT THE SAME AT ALL
And did it not occur to anyone that maybe people complain about the weather in early January in the UK *because early January UK weather tends to be a bit shit*?
In a staggering break with tradition, I’m going to come out and say that the weather’s quite, quite lovely today.